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Pork price volatility is expected in the four quarter, the magnitude of the adjustment will be greater

Time£º2016-10-10


September is scheduled to, and after the national day, Mid Autumn Festival, new year day, Spring Festival and other festivals, recently, there are a lot of people in the industry said: the holidays approaching, students to the school, a consumer can pull the pork price rose, in the face of everyone expectations, pig market prices really so?

Today we do not say that the pig price, saying only a few factors related to the pig price. We all know that the price is determined by supply and demand, price stability from the balance of supply and demand. About the recent impact on the supply and demand of several factors, let us take a look, "school season" and "holidays" is not really as we expected, there is so much force to boost the price of pig.

Factors affecting supply

The amount available, and slaughter herds

1, sow herds still continue to decline, eliminated in the

From 2015 the Ministry of agriculture in July 4000 monitoring of live pigs information, in July the national sows volume continued to decline 0.6% mom, 14.5% yoy, estimated July sows volume of about 38 million 760 thousand. Can sows have been reduced for 23 consecutive months.

We can infer that: from 4 May, pork prices started to rise, Bulan cases have increased slightly, but the number is not large, therefore, until August, the number of slaughter and did not change significantly, also can cause substantial effect on the supply of basic surface.

2, there was no improvement in slaughter

From the Ministry of agriculture and the National Bureau of statistics data: July slaughter capacity is 6.16% lower than last month, the number of market hog slaughter by July has not increased.

The above two points: market supply is not as we expected, after 5 months of rising prices, can significantly stimulate the increase market supply situation, the pressure of the column pig who has weakened, but the market wait-and-see mood. This also means that the increase in the number of slaughter in the short term will be very limited, pulling effect on pig supply increase number is also very weak.

Two, reserve meat supply

State reserve meat is an important means of national macro-control of the meat market, to support the production of live pigs, to protect the interests of consumers, to stabilize the market, stabilize prices play an important role.

The Financial Times reported that Tang Yaping, in "dead meat" rumors occurred, as of the end of 6, the Agricultural Development Bank of Tiantan in Beijing city to the Beijing branch of the cumulative 4 large frozen food enterprises issuing state reserve meat full subsidies 187 million 287 thousand yuan of loans, the current stock of loans 31 million 659 thousand yuan, the cumulative support enterprises to purchase the frozen pork and frozen beef million tons, powerful the Beijing City meat market supply and price stability.

Therefore, we can not ignore that the National Bank has no plans to reserve the meat is not complete, now has not seen much action, because both consumption or the pig industry, the current price level inflated part has dropped, the dynamic balance of pork price has been gradually opening. But precisely because the current reserves of meat will not sell on the market, the supply side of the pig market will not form a big impact. As for the holidays and school season to put some regular course of official duties reserve meat, can only say that part of the consumer market will curb demand, but supply will not change fundamentally.